Hollywood’s Paradox: Why a Year of Hits Leads to a Nervous Fall

Hollywood is facing a paradox: a year filled with unexpected box office hits has led to a nervous fall season due to a sudden drought of major releases. The industry is celebrating the $148.8 million global haul of Weapons, but simultaneously bracing for a significant drop in attendance over the next several weeks.
The successes of 2025 have been a refreshing change of pace. Original stories like Sinners and massive spectacles like Jurassic World Rebirth ($828 million) have shown that the theatrical experience is still highly valued when the content is compelling. Audiences have demonstrated a clear preference for fresh and exciting films.
This positive trend is now on hold. The upcoming film slate is noticeably devoid of the tentpole movies that typically drive the market in the fall. While September offers a new Conjuring installment and the high-profile One Battle After Another, the general expectation is for a subdued box office performance until the holiday season kicks off.
The industry is banking on a late-year recovery, led by the October release of Tron: Ares. This will be followed by a strong lineup of potential blockbusters, including Mortal Kombat II and Predator: Badlands. Analysts believe theaters are financially sound enough to withstand this temporary lull.